Patreon Player Cards
Player Skill Cards
Goals Over Average (GOA) for Skaters:
GOA is a novel metric designed to measure and project the goals per 60 differentials of NHL skaters. GOA evaluates a skater’s proficiency in the five most important areas of the game: even-strength offense, even-strength defense, powerplay offense, penalty kill defense, and penalty differentials. A skater’s total GOA is a weighted sum of their skills in these areas. GOA offers a comprehensive view of a skater’s contribution to their team through a nuanced data-driven evaluation that surpasses traditional metrics.
Reading the skater cards:
Percentiles explained:
Percentiles are relative measures. On the player skill cards players are evaluated relative to other players at their position. A higher percentile rank signifies better performance. For instance, a player in the 90th percentile is performing better than 90% of others in the same category. For example, if Slavin is in the 99th percentile for even strength defense, this means he is better at even strength defense than 99% of the other players in the dataset (NHL defensemen).
In-season vs. Projection Cards:
The Projection Cards consider multiple years of historical data to provide a forward-looking glimpse into a player’s potential impact. The In-Season Cards capture the immediacy of a player’s current performance by relying solely on data from the ongoing season. While these cards offer a snapshot of a player’s recent achievements , it’s important to acknowledge the smaller sample size, recognizing that fluctuations in performance may be more pronounced. Using the projection and in-season cards together allows us to appreciate both the long-term trajectory and immediate contributions of NHL players.
Versatility explained:
The Versatility Score is a unique metric designed to encapsulate a player’s multifaceted skills on the ice. By summing the percentile ranks across four key categories—Even Strength Offense, Even Strength Defense, Penalty Kill Defense, and Power Play Offense—the Versatility Score provides a holistic view of a player’s capabilities in both offensive and defensive situations. A higher Versatility Score indicates a player who excels both offensively and defensively across a range of strength states. This metric offers a nuanced understanding of a player’s well-rounded impact on the game and provides insights into the diverse strengths that players bring to the ice.
Goals Over Average (GOA) for Goalies:
GOA-for-goalies is designed to measure and project a goaltender’s impact on their team’s goal differential. GOA provides insights that transcend traditional metrics, considering not just the quantity but the quality of shots faced. By accounting for shot context we can gain a deeper understanding of a goalie’s impact on the game.
Like for the skaters, there are TWO types of goalie GOA cards available. The in-season performance cards (above – left) which use input data from only the current season and the projection cards (above – right), which use input data from the current season as well as the previous 2 (with recent data weighed more heavily).
Reading the goalie cards:
Player Production Cards
Predicting Player Production (the short version):
Using data from the past four NHL seasons, including the current one, I calculate the likelihood that a player would score a goal or get an assist during any 30-second period they spent on the ice. Data-driven optimizations were used to make decisions about model parameters and weights.
To simulate a game, I divide each player’s projected ice time into 30-second intervals, and for each interval, a random number generator determines if they would score a goal or get an assist based on the calculated probabilities. I then repeat this process for each game a player had left in the season to simulate the rest of the season. By running these simulations many times the probabilities of each player reaching milestones or leading in goals and points at the end of a season can be identified.
Reading the Production Cards:
Additional Production Data Available:
